2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Forwarded by Philip Szczepanski, W3YVT
To all :
As you know last year the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season set numerous records.
Everyone was hoping for an event called ‘ El Nino ‘ for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In an El Nino year, warmer than usual surface water temps in the Pacific Ocean near South America, causes a decrease in the tropical activity in the North Atlantic Ocean. Many hurricane experts were hoping for a break in the record activity. According to the latest predictions and observations from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, at least for the next 3 to 6 months, there will be no El Nino.
In fact just the opposite will take place. A La Nina event or colder than usual water temps in the same Pacific Ocean region. The years with a La Nina event have historically resulted in more hurricanes and stronger hurricanes than a El Nino year.
If this forecast holds true, this time frame will take us well into the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Does this mean more category 5 hurricanes and more U.S. mainland landfalling storms ? Only next 31 November will tell. Of course there were still more named storms even after the traditional end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season ( 31 November ) this past season.
As we get closer to the beginning of the 2006 season, more refined tropical activity predictions will be made by the experts. As of now, the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season is supposed to be above normal in total Tropical Storms and Hurricanes.
Now is the time to start thinking about your preparedness plans. Don’t end up like those people in Louisiana and Mississippi. Just being prepared for a category 1 to 3 hurricane is not enough. You must think of surviving a category 4 or 5 monster storm. That is not being a radical survivalist. It’s called being a realist.
As soon as official predictions are announced, I will post them.
Lt Col Anthony Biondo Jr
Public Affairs Officer, North Carolina Wing / CAP
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